Is ARM or RISC-V Bound to Rise in the Windows PC Ecosystem?

Despite AMD's Ryzen series being wildly popular according to the 'Steam Hardware Survey,' they're still struggling to capture marketshare. AMD's processors have become extremely popular among custom PC builders. Back during the heyday of AMD's FX processors, which were not popular, AMD's marketshare was around 20 to 25 percent. Custom PC builders might get confused because they're looking at the sales reports from mindfactory or newegg, but there's a difference between what people are currently buying for their custom builds and what people are currently using.

Since AMD has had so much trouble capturing marketshare against Intel, how would ARM or RISC-V based processors do? The overall issue is a vast majority of people buy OEM/Pre-configured systems and OEM's love love love Intel. In the end, pricing, software, and system stability will make or break ARM. OEM's won't be keen on using ARM or RISC-V based processors until they know these are stable. This is one thing people don't know about: OEM's view end-support as a waste of money. OEMs set a very limited budget for the Customer Service divisions, which is why people have so many problems trying to get these companies to honor the warranty.

Good Riddance! Is X86 Outdated in the Modern PC Ecosystem?

X86 is literally a zombie architecture—it's been outdated for decades. ARM has been the future for a long time, but since developers have already set their markers towards X86, they don't want to change that. The underlying infrastructure that was built upon X86 is not ready to be abandoned, making it difficult to switch to a newer architecture.

The History of Windows Platforms and Their Attempts to Diversify

Way back in the days of Windows NT, Microsoft planned on having Windows run on multiple platforms. There was Windows NT to run on a DEC Alpha, replacing OpenVMS, and on Power PC instead of IBM AIX. Unfortunately, it didn't work out and MS abandoned those platforms. Intel developed the Itanium x64 platform to replace X86. It turned out to be more capable and faster than X86 but also more expensive. It was also not compatible with the older X86 instruction set, meaning people switching to Itanium would have had to run under emulation or purchase all new software to run on the new machine. That was unacceptable to users.

The situation was resolved when AMD (I think) developed a 64-bit platform that was backwards compatible with X86 and licensed it back to Intel. Microsoft also developed a 64-bit Windows to work with it. So the question arises: if Microsoft could find a way to work with an existing, compatible architecture like AMD's Opteron, why would they do that unless there was a financial incentive and a willing user base for it?

Competition and Market Share in the PC Ecosystem

The current landscape of the PC ecosystem is dominated by x86 processors. The main competitors, ARM and RISC-V, face significant challenges in capturing market share due to the established infrastructure and customer expectations. While custom PC builders are open to alternatives, the majority of consumers prefer pre-configured systems that are optimized for x86 processors.

Evaluating the chances of ARM or RISC-V gaining traction in the Windows PC ecosystem involves considering several key factors:

Stability: OEMs require assurances that ARM or RISC-V processors will deliver stable performance and reliability. This is crucial for companies that rely on consistent and reliable systems for their operations and businesses. Support: The limited budget for customer service divisions means that OEMs are hesitant to adopt new architectures unless they can offer robust support to customers. Compatibility: Ensuring that ARM or RISC-V processors can run existing software without issues is paramount. Compatibility is a major hurdle, as many applications and games are currently optimized for x86 processors. Economic Incentives: Financial incentives are necessary for OEMs to adopt new processors. These could include cost savings, performance gains, or opportunities to differentiate their products.

The Future of ARM and RISC-V in the Windows Ecosystem

The future of ARM and RISC-V in the Windows PC ecosystem hinges on addressing these challenges. While there is excitement around the potential of these new architectures, they must overcome significant obstacles to succeed.

As with any new technology, there is a path for ARM and RISC-V to compete with x86. However, it requires a combination of technical breakthroughs, market demand, and corporate cooperation. For now, it seems unlikely that ARM or RISC-V will replace x86 as the primary processor architecture for Windows PCs. However, they could coexist, with enthusiasts and developers choosing between systems running ARM or RISC-V for specific purposes, while the majority of users stick with x86 for their day-to-day needs.