Will Houston Ever Overtake Los Angeles as the 2nd Largest City in the US?

The debate around whether Houston or Los Angeles will become the second largest city in the United States is an ongoing conversation. As of August 2023, Los Angeles remains the second largest city in the country, following New York City. However, Houston has been growing rapidly and is currently the fourth largest city by population.

Current Situation

According to current estimates, Los Angeles is slightly larger in area at 503 square miles compared to Houston, which spans 669 square miles. In terms of population, Los Angeles has roughly 4.2 million inhabitants, while Houston has about 2.6 million within its city limits. However, when considering the broader metropolitan area, Houston's population significantly increases to approximately 7 million.

Factors Influencing Houston's Growth

Several factors are contributing to Houston's rapid growth:

Population Growth Rates

Houston's population growth has been higher than Los Angeles in recent years. Factors such as job opportunities, a strong economy, and a relatively low cost of living have been driving this growth. If this trend continues, it could narrow the gap between the two cities.

Migration Trends

Continued domestic and international migration to Houston can significantly contribute to its population growth. This influx of residents can help Houston sustain and enhance its growth trajectory.

Economic Conditions

Urban Houston offers a plethora of economic opportunities, particularly in sectors such as energy, healthcare, and technology. These sectors can attract more residents and bolster the city's economy, which can, in turn, facilitate further growth.

Urban Development

The city's ability to manage urban growth, ensuring proper infrastructure, housing, and public services, is crucial in maintaining its appeal. Effective urban planning can help Houston sustain its growth without compromising the quality of life for its residents.

Challenges to Overtake Los Angeles

While Houston is growing, several challenges may hinder its ability to overtake Los Angeles as the second largest city in the US:

City Limits

Both Los Angeles and Houston are surrounded by other cities, limiting their ability to expand outward. Houston's financial problems, while not as severe as those of other cities, mean that the city is unlikely to engage in annexation or consolidation. The fixed footprint of both cities may limit their growth potential.

Urban Density

Los Angeles has an established infrastructure that promotes dense urban development, including its heavy rail subway system, extensive light rail network, and commuter rail systems. These features make LA more densely populated and easier to manage. In contrast, Houston's climate does not favor extensive transit, walking, or cycling, making it challenging to achieve a similar density.

Urban Sprawl

Los Angeles is constrained by oceans, mountains, and deserts, limiting its potential for urban sprawl. Houston, situated on flat Texas plains, has much more opportunity for expansion. However, even with this advantage, Houston may not be able to grow as rapidly as LA's metro area, which currently accommodates about 20 million people, whereas Houston's metro area is approximately 7-8 million.

Predictions for the Future

While it's challenging to predict with certainty, the data suggests that it would take a significant period for Houston to surpass Los Angeles in population, especially considering current trends. Assuming current growth rates continue, it could take Houston roughly 240 years to grow to the size of LA's metro area. This timeframe is based on current population growth rates in both cities.

Ultimately, while Houston's growth is commendable, it faces several structural and infrastructural hurdles that challenge its ability to overtake Los Angeles as the second largest city in the United States.