Is the Crisis with Huawei Driving Major Smartphone Companies to Develop Their Own Mobile Operating System?

Huawei, the global leader in telecommunications equipment, is facing a significant challenge. In the wake of trade restrictions and sanctions, the company is now exploring the possibility of developing its own mobile operating system. While developing an operating system might seem like a straightforward task, especially given Android's open-source nature, the realities of the market and technological landscape are far more complex.

Can Huawei Develop an Operable Mobile OS?

Developing a mobile operating system is not as simple as changing a line of code in Android. While Android is indeed open-source, it is not as straightforward as taking the source code and altering a few lines to create a new OS. Android includes a suite of pre-installed applications, critical components, and software licenses that are not open source and are essential for the functionality of the phone. Key features like the browser, online store, and Google Maps require extensive development and licensing agreements.

Google's browsers, like Chrome, and apps like Google Maps and the Play Store are not open-source. They are proprietary software that is specifically licensed to operate on Android devices. The process of developing these applications took Google and other companies years and billions of dollars. Without these critical components, a mobile phone would be severely limited and likely infeasible to market.

Moreover, even if Huawei were able to create its own OS, the company would still face significant challenges in launching this new system. A phone without a browser, for example, would be almost impossible to sell. Huawei has around 300 million customers with many still using older models. It is unrealistic to think that the company can afford to stop selling phones for a period while developing such a new OS. Hence, a beta release by 2021, as initially planned, is highly unlikely given the market dynamics and the company's need to generate revenue.

The Deal or Bust Scenario

Huawei will have to find a way to continue functioning within the existing ecosystem and comply with the new restrictions. One possible pathway is to negotiate a deal with Google and other software providers. Huawei could release the source code of its OS for independent verification, ensuring that it does not contain any malicious features that could compromise user security or privacy. While this is generally considered undesirable by most companies as their "crown jewels," it may be necessary for Huawei to remain in the market.

Impact on the Industry and Future Trends

The actions of Huawei could have significant implications for the smartphone industry. As they seek to develop their own OS, other major manufacturers might also consider this path. Competition in the mobile space could intensify as companies explore breaking away from a reliance on a single supplier. This could lead to a diversification of mobile OSes in the market.

However, the practicality of such a move is questionable given the current ecosystem. It would be challenging for any company to replicate the success of Google and Apple without years of investment and billions of dollars. Thus, while developing an OS is certainly a possibility, it is a challenging and uncertain path that would require strategic cooperation and substantial resources.

As the global landscape continues to evolve, the challenge for Huawei and other smartphone companies is to navigate the complex world of technology and compliance. The development of a new mobile operating system could signal a significant shift in the industry or prove to be a strategic misstep that hinders their ability to compete effectively.