The Optimal Strategy to Hit 16 in Blackjack

One of the most common questions in blackjack is whether to hit on a 16. This decision depends on the dealer's upcard and the specific rules of the game you are playing. In this guide, we will explore the optimal strategy for deciding whether to hit 16 based on the dealer’s upcard. We will also explore the concept of Basic Strategy and why it is crucial for increasing your winning chances.

General Guidelines Based on Dealer's Upcard

The decision to hit or stand on a 16 in blackjack depends largely on the dealer’s upcard. Here are some general guidelines:

Dealers Upcard is 7 or Higher

If the dealer shows a card of 7 or higher, the conventional strategy suggests that you should hit. The rationale behind this is that the dealer has a good chance of ending up with a total of 17 or more. By hitting, you can improve your hand and try to outscore the dealer. This strategy is based on the fact that the dealer is more likely to win if they have a higher card as an upcard.

Dealers Upcard is 2 through 6

If the dealer’s upcard is between 2 and 6, traditional strategy usually recommends standing. This is because the dealer has a higher chance of busting (exceeding 21) if they must hit on any total of 16 or less. Standing on a 16 in this situation is a safer choice as it minimizes the risk of losing.

Your 16 is a ...

The phrase "Your 16 is a ..." is incomplete, but generally speaking, the quality of your 16 (whether you have a soft or hard total) can also play a role in your decision. Soft 16s (including an Ace counted as 11) offer more flexibility and can be more advantageous, especially when the dealer’s upcard is 9 or 10. In such cases, hitting a soft 16 might be more favorable as you can count the Ace as 1 if your total exceeds 21.

Considering Surrender

Surrendering is another option in blackjack that players can consider. If you have a hard 16 (no Ace counted as 11) and the dealer’s upcard is a 9, 10, or an Ace, the option to surrender might be worth considering. Surrendering allows you to forfeit half your bet instead of playing the hand. Statistically, this can be a better option if you are likely to lose. However, the surrender option is not available in all blackjack variations, so it is important to check the rules of the specific game you are playing.

Contextual Decisions

Decisions in blackjack can sometimes vary based on the rules of the game you are playing or the composition of the decks in play. For instance, in games with more decks, the strategy might slightly adjust. These contextual factors can influence your decisions, so it is essential to be aware of the specific rules of the game and the impact they have on your strategy.

Learning Basic Strategy

To make the most informed decisions, it is highly recommended to learn and follow Basic Strategy. This is a mathematically optimized guide that provides the best action to take (hit, stand, double down, split, or surrender) based on your hand and the dealer’s upcard. Basic Strategy can be a bit complex, but mastering it can significantly increase your odds of winning over time.

Basic Strategy is not a guaranteed winning strategy, but it is designed to give you an edge over the house. Each game and situation is unique, so understanding the nuances of the game you are playing is crucial. Even experienced players can benefit from this strategy as it provides consistent and mathematically sound decision-making.

Additional Resources for Learning Blackjack

For a comprehensive course in how to play blackjack, from beginner to advanced levels, including how to count cards and make a living from it, visit and access the Academy. I have written a series of articles on how to play various table games, including roulette, baccarat, and playing slots in Las Vegas. These resources can provide you with valuable insights into the game and help you improve your strategy and chances of winning.

Remember, each game is unique, and understanding the details of the specific game you are playing is key to making the best decisions. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced player, applying Basic Strategy can help you make more informed choices and increase your chances of success.

Enjoy the game and good luck!