Virtual Reality: Will Desktop Sales in 2017 See a Surge?
As the popularity of virtual reality (VR) continues to rise, many are wondering if this trend will buoy desktop sales in 2017. While there is a potential increase, the shift towards mobile computing environments poses a significant challenge to desktop manufacturers.
Initial Surge in Desktop Sales
The first version of the consumer-grade Oculus Rift was released on March 28, 2016. Assuming widespread adoption of VR technology, we should observe a corresponding increase in computer sales, notably during the holiday season in 2016. Specifically, the 4th quarter of 2016 might see a boost in VR-ready desktop sales, given that these machines would make excellent gifts for users keen on diving into the virtual world.
According to a report from comScore, there was a 18% increase in desktop sales in the 4th quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. This indicates a positive trend in consumer interest. However, the report also revealed a 45% increase in smartphone and tablet sales during the same period, reflecting a broader shift towards portable devices.
Analysts' Perspectives on the PC Market
Desktop sales are facing stiff competition from the growth of mobile computing environments. According to Gartner, worldwide PC sales declined by between 5 to 8% year-on-year in 2016. In the specific quarter of Q3, PC sales dropped from 73.7 million units in 2015 to 69 million units in 2016, marking a significant decline of nearly 5 million units. This trend shows the speed at which the market is shifting towards mobile devices.
Similarly, Forbes reported that the HTC Vive sold about 140,000 headsets over six months in 2016. Oculus is projected to have slightly lower sales, which we can estimate at around 140,000 headsets for their devices. Assuming that each VR headset purchase requires the acquisition of two new computers, this would amount to approximately 700,000 PC sales. This number is still well below the 5 million-unit decline in a single quarter.
Impact on PC and Laptop Sales
Many users who adopt VR technology are likely to be hardcore gamers and PC enthusiasts who already own powerful machines and do not need to purchase additional computers. Therefore, while VR could slow down the decline of PC and laptop sales, its direct impact on the PC market is minimal. In the most optimistic scenario, VR might only arrest the decline; in a more likely scenario, its effect on the PC market is negligible.
Conclusion
While the increasing popularity of VR technology presents an opportunity for desktop sales, the overarching shift towards mobile computing environments poses a significant challenge. The positive increase in desktop sales observed in 2016 might be attributed to a combination of existing interest in VR and other factors. Companies focused on VR experiences for smartphone users are likely to have a competitive advantage in capturing a growing market.