Will Google Undercut Facebook in the Battle for User Engagement?
Intense Competition
It is difficult to predict the future of the competition between Google and Facebook. However, these two giants are long-standing rivals in the world of web traffic. With Google holding the top spot and Facebook in second, both companies have been attempting to blend social data into search capabilities. Google released initiatives like Google Buzz, attempting to integrate with Twitter, and more recently, Google’s Graph Search. Conversely, Facebook ventured into developing Graph Search to merge search with social networking. Despite these efforts, neither company has successfully convinced consumers to use them for both search and social activities, yet each continues to pursue this goal. As seen by Sachendra Yadav, the success will depend largely on user adoption.
Why The Switch Is Difficult
The shift from one established platform to another is not an easy task for users. For instance, transitioning from Facebook to Google Plus involves adding connections, building credibility, and creating content. It’s a challenge similar to moving to a new house, albeit on a smaller scale.
Current Trends and User Sentiment
There are currently strong indications that Google may not be able to attract users as effectively as Facebook. Data tracking since early public launches of Google reveal a trend where the number of users who dislike the service surpasses those who like it. This is particularly concerning as the gender-weighted data also shows a slight skew towards more male respondents who are generally less inclined towards social networks.
Based on current data, it is expected that the number of consumers who dislike Google’s service will exceed those who find it appealing very soon. This decline in user satisfaction could hinder viral growth and overall market appeal, potentially posing a significant obstacle for Google.
User Base Analysis and Targeting
Facebook's user base is distinguished by its homogeneity. Initially, Facebook attracted a predominantly younger, college-aged demographic, creating a large and loyal user base that maintains a consistent age and life stage. In contrast, Google's user base is fragmented across all demographics, making it harder to target and maintain user engagement.
Migration Friction
Google currently boasts an impressive 800 million active users. For the average user, the difficulty of maintaining connections, sharing information, and maintaining the time and effort invested in building their networks poses a significant obstacle to switching to a different platform.
Additionally, Facebook has successfully integrated social and content sharing, achieving a network effect that makes it hard for users to leave. Google, on the other hand, has not managed to replicate this successful model where the Like button, Share button, and Subscribe feature allow users to surface content in a highly relevant context among their network.
Essentially, the current landscape suggests that Facebook maintains a competitive edge over Google, at least for the time being. To overcome this, Google would need to substantially improve its social and content sharing capabilities and significantly alter its user demographic to better align with Facebook’s homogenous, engaged user base.